Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine design feasibility.
58Tool-assisted
Mehan Observatory / Applied frontier 01
How much of a job
fits inside today's AI horizon?
Not a headline about jobs disappearing. A task-level map of what machines can plausibly assist, what real workplaces make harder, and what remains stubbornly human.
Open the instrument →01
Task-level explorer
A job is not
one task.
Choose an occupation, then tighten the conditions. The instrument separates work already close to the AI frontier from work still anchored in trust, context, and the physical world.
15-1252.00
Software Developers
- U.S. employment
- 1.7M
- Mean wage
- $148,100
50% experimental80% dependable
Clean inputsMessy reality
Scenario signal632 of 5 sampled tasks near the horizon
Develop software testing or validation procedures, programming, or documentation.
74Near horizon
Confer with technical teams to design systems and define constraints and interfaces.
39Tool-assisted
Modify software to correct errors, adapt hardware, or improve performance.
66Tool-assisted
Prepare reports or correspondence on project specifications, activity, or status.
80Near horizon
This is an editorial scenario signal—not an automation probability, job-loss forecast, or claim that every workplace uses the same tools.
02
How to read the instrument
Start with tasks.
O*NET supplies the official task statements. Five representative tasks reveal why exposure inside one occupation can vary sharply.
Stress the setting.
Reliability raises the bar for repeatable success. Workplace friction represents missing context, coordination, approvals, and imperfect inputs.
Keep humans in view.
Physical action, legal responsibility, care, trust, and organizational judgment remain different constraints from producing a correct digital output.
03Sources before
Evidence desk
Sources before
certainty.
Task architectureO*NET Database 30.3Official occupation task statements; task wording lightly shortened for display.Labor contextBLS Occupational Employment and Wage StatisticsMay 2025 national employment and annual mean wages.Capability frameMETR Task-Completion Time HorizonsThe distinction between 50% and 80% task success inspired the reliability control.
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